Monday, October 20, 2008

Pretty Much Over

FiveThirtyEight.com gives Obama a 92.5% chance of winning. Electoral-Vote.com has 264 "strong Dem" electoral votes (i.e. Obama has a greater than 10% lead in polling) out of the 270 necessary to win, and predicts he will get 364 electoral votes total. (Looks like it will be the landslide I predicted.)

To use the 2008 political season's favorite catchphrase, it's "dead girl live boy" time.
Update:

I just noticed this: On October 18th in St. Louis, Obama drew a crowd of 100,000 people. On October 20th in St. Louis, McCain drew a crowd of 2,000 people. A little bit apples and oranges with it being a Saturday crowd versus a Monday crowd, but still: Ouch.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I'm still not believing any of it until everyone actually goes out and actually VOTES for the man. I'm so worried that all these people who support Obama will think it's a done deal and slack on the follow-through!

-Nancy

Jil Wrinkle said...

True enough Nancy,

But the way that early voting has been going... with 2 hour lines in Florida and elsewhere... and the experience of the last 2 Presidential elections teaching Americans that the not-voting groupthink (especially among young liberals) could very well be a major cause of the problems we have had over the last 8 years... I hope that Americans have turned that corner, and start taking voting a little more seriously.