Tuesday, October 21, 2008

A Bit Of Catharsis

I never liked her. Now, neither do you apparently.
That doesn't appear to be the case with McCain's running mate, Sarah Palin. Fifty-five percent of respondents say she's not qualified to serve as president if the need arises, up five points from the previous poll.

Now, Palin's qualifications to be president rank as voters' top concern about McCain's candidacy — ahead of continuing President Bush's policies, enacting economic policies that only benefit the rich and keeping too high of a troop presence in Iraq.

4 comments:

Chief said...

Jil,

I have to agree with you on this one. Palin has accomplished what she was selected for - energizing the Republican base. Which she still is doing in spades - as I have said before she can pack a stadium (just like Obama).

I am so sick of hearing her (and to be fair Obama also) stump speeches in which she just reads from the teleprompter. The crowds at these events, uh and oh, and cheer and jeer on queue. Honestly, I think I dislike the brain dead, sheep on those events then I do the politicians. I wish people would educate themselves on the issues, our form of government (read the US Constitution) and stop supporting these worthless politicians.

I have to admit I am not that disappointed with Palin - I expected little from her anyway. But I am very disappointed with Biden. Apparently, I thought to highly of him - he has turned into quiet the moron. Obama needs to get Biden to stop saying stupid shit and just stick with the teleprompter. When he adlibs - he says the strangest and at times stupidest things I have heard. an you imagine what would have happened if Palin where to have said "three letter word - J O B S." Would have been primetime on every channel for a week.

Jill, what do you think of all those polling numbers? I for one do not trust them. There is some horribly misleading polls out there. I know you titled an entry "Pretty Much Over" but I highly disagree - I am getting a feeling this is going to much closer then these "polls" are stating.

Jil Wrinkle said...

Biden is funny. He could easily have been President 150 years ago... and probably would have been President 150 years ago before a politician had every word he had ever spoken in his political career recorded for posterity, and every speech broadcast, each prosody analyzed and every facial movement debated.

In the world of politics 150 years ago, it was party seniority and party dedication and peer respect that earned you a Presidential bid more than anything else. And more than anything else, Joe Biden is a politician's politician.

Conversely, other Republican Senators would have never let McCain and his temper and tendency to explode (even on fellow Republican Senators — just ask Cornyn, Cochran, Domenici, and even former Senator Santorum) get to the top of the Republican heap if this were 150 years ago. Obama (skin color notwithstanding) wouldn't have done much better because of his junior status. (Of course, Junior Senators from Illinois with only a few years experience outside of state government and no executive experience or international credentials seem to be an exception in America, as any penny or $5 bill will remind you.)

Anyway, I never ever let my opinion of a politician be effected by the silly mistakes they make when giving a speech... especially when they are 12 or 14 hours per day on the hustings, 7 days per week.

Just yesterday, John McCain said to a crowd in Western Pennsylvania, "Senator Obama's supporters have been saying some pretty nasty things about Western Pennsylvania lately, and you know, I couldn't agree with them more." I mean that's a seriously bad gaffe... but it doesn't mean anything other than the fact that McCain has been going as hard as he can for 12 months straight, and is exhausted.

Biden is famous for saying stupid things. That's been the case for 30-plus years. It (along with verbosity) was the first thing pundits thought to mention when they heard he was the VP nominee. (He's the one that said Barack Obama was, among other things, "clean"... and he meant it in a "showered" kind of way.) But, he's a fantastic politician, especially on foreign policy. He's just a poor campaigner and orator. Big deal. Focusing on that kind of stuff really only matters to somebody who just expects the worst out of a person, and uses any little nit to confirm that.

Now, Palin saying that she had foreign policy experience because Alaska and Russia are so close together: She meant to say that, and it was stupid... and et cetera and et cetera for her and the things she says. But I don't make fun of her accent or her mannerisms, or let those alter my opinion of her, and if she were to make a verbal slip, I wouldn't add it to the list of things she has actually meant to say that are frighteningly bad coming from a Vice Presidential candidate.

I'm sure that lots of incredible American Presidents in the past would have made Sarah Palin and Joe Biden look like genuises if they had to campaign head-to-head against them in the modern media spotlights. It doesn't mean much to me.



Regarding the polling numbers, I had to take lots of statistics in college, and there is one simple truth: 20 different polling companies, each taking 4 or 5 different polls of each state, all gathering data in 20 different ways, that all come to the same conclusion, makes for a very reliable sample. (When the Republican party is actually publishing polls that they commissioned that shows Obama is winning, you can bank on it.)

If anything, I would say that the polls are underestimating right now: Early voting and absentee voting have historically always trended Republican. However, recent results from states that release early voting election votes (and there are literally 5 or 10 times more early/absentee votes this election compared to last) shows Obama with incredibly large margins... like a 20 to 30 point margin in North Carolina.

Anonymous said...

I think we will all be surprised. I believe Mccain will pull off a miracle. Remember polls are what people say not what they actually do. In US we still have lots of racial hatred that will show up on election night.

Jakal

Jil Wrinkle said...

Well, Jakal, it certainly will be the miracle of all miracles if McCain pulls it off. One for the history books.