Wednesday, April 1, 2009

And When Nate Silver Talks...

America's best political statistician, Nate Silver, crunches the numbers for the 2010 elections, and makes the following determination:
All is not lost for the Republicans, however. While a popular president can help his party to stem its losses, his party nearly always loses at least some seats at the midterms. Since World War II, the president’s party has lost an average of twenty-four House seats in the interim elections, gaining ground on just two of sixteen occasions. My statistical model shows that Obama will need to sustain an approval rating in the range of 65 percent to avoid losing any ground in the House. (The Senate, where the Democrats can take advantage of at least five Republican retirements, might be a different story.)
Believe it, kids. This guy is right so often, it's scaryweirdamazing.

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