I predict that Obama (or McCain) won't be declared the winner of Tuesday's election until Wednesday morning... and I don't mean after midnight... I mean breakfast time. The networks won't declare a winner until then.
The way I see it, so many people are going to be voting, it's going to clog the system. Everywhere. The majority of states will probably have to extend the polling schedule in at least a couple of districts by several hours (maybe even as late as midnight in some areas; if there is a 6-hour line when polls close at 7 p.m., there you go). If closing times are extended in New York or Texas or California until late night, that's one thing: everybody knows who is going to win those states. However, without results from Florida, Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, and half a dozen others, nobody will be able to figure anything out for certain.
Then, of course, all of those states will still have poll workers tabulating through the night, and there will be enough problems to delay releasing results until the rest of America is waking up on Wednesday.
UPDATE:
Well, happily I was wrong. I'll never grumble about having one of my pessimistic predictions fail to come true. I haven't heard any complaints about voting yet, or any polling snafus. Other than the obvious news tonight, if I find out that this election went off without a hitch; that everyone who wanted to vote was allowed to vote, and within the scheduled time frame — compared to what America had been through on several previous elections — it would be the best news.
UPDATE 2:
Uh-oh. Minutes after Update 1, it looks like the distant rumble of trouble can be heard coming out of Georgia. FiveThirtyEight says the early word is that somebody might have forgotten to add in the early voting results... a million votes which were heavily Democrat. Not too much news for Obama — although a Georgia win would be nice — but Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss (currently winning at 50.1%) just shat himself.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
10 comments:
Jil
You forgot to factor in the small army of attorneys both sized as on retainer - waiting to push this issue into the courts (unless that is what you meant by "problems"). We will know Wednesday - at the earliest who will win this.
Chief
Nah. Those guys are going to be making post hoc arguments. The networks are only waiting for a single minimal criterion (passing 270 electoral votes) to go from "almost certainly" to "100% certainty."
The courts will decide the next President and it will take a month.
From Jakal
Actually I think the republicans will want those polls closed as soon as the clock hits the initially agreed-upon hour. That's how they go in St. Louis- the republican monitors show up late, the republican-run state government doesn't provide enough machines to alleviate long lines, and the republican lawyers start filing motions to kick everyone out the minute the alloted time is up, regardless of lines or machine malfunctions. If you notice, MO is always one of the last states to report in, because of the court orders flying back and forth to disenfranchise then re-enfranchise (?) all the urban voters.
Suppressing the vote will be the republicans' second-to-last stand, before all the lawsuits are filed.
Signed,
Your sister who won't relax until it's over, polls or not!
No Jakal, no Jakal: I disagree. I think that the margin of victory for Obama will be substantial enough (100+ electoral votes... 338-to-200 is the official line) that there will not be any sense in bitching about a few thousand miscounted votes here, or a few faulty machines there, or a few disenfranchised voters elsewhere. Once all the votes are submitted and counted (and it will take all night), everyone will consider the election over.
Nancy: Efforts to disenfranchise black and poor people really is one of the most awful things that Republicans have been doing, not just in this election, but in prior elections as well. Of course, the Republicans can claim "reasonable doubt" or "procedural precedence" in their efforts... because otherwise these efforts wouldn't make it past the first breath of life... but the intent is still hard to argue.
Playing dirty political tricks on the other candidate is low, but making sure that certain groups of people have a more difficult time voting, or a total inability to vote... that's just terribly wrong and no American with a conscience should support it.
It is over we have a new leader. It was a quick and clean victory. What an amazing day in our history. I hope he is the real deal and not just hot air and false promisses. Either way I support the new commander and chief and am proud to be an American.
from Jakal
Jil,
Look at my blog...I voted!
jil, how is it that you are never right in your predictions but spin it as you are?
You Suck!
LOL
Anon, how is it that you are never intelligent in your comments but spin it as you are?
You're retarded!
LOL
come on man! just because i have downs syndrome doesnt mean you have to call me retarded.
regards,
Corky,
Post a Comment