Monday, December 19, 2011

Quick Thought

President Obama's chances of reelection are approximately 100%.

About 25% of that probability comes from the Republican primary in which every candidate had to claim "I'm crazy like you" to the people who are going to vote them in the primaries.

About 25% of that probability comes from attack adds from Republican candidates pointing at each other saying, "He's not crazy like us" to the people who are going to vote for them in the primaries.

About 25% of that probability comes from the rest of the American public looking at the Republican candidates and concluding, "You're crazy based on all the crazy shit I've heard you say in the Republican Primaries."

The remaining probability comes from the fact that President Obama has not even cleared his throat yet to start the actual campaign, and you know he's no slouch as a candidate.

Like it or not: Four more years. Those endless debates where all the candidates stood up and tried to out-tea-party each other was the best thing Obama could ever have hoped for. For every "I'll bring the jobs back" line, there was an "I'll arrest all the activist judges" line. Every candidate who said that they would repeal "Obamacare" also said they would start a war with Iran.

Republicans this year forgot the most important rule in politics: The more a politician talks (not makes speeches... but talks: as in debates, interviews, et cetera), the more likely he will say something that will make it impossible for people to vote for him. Think about it: If Rick Perry had never said a single word, he would still be the front runner in this race. But look at him now. If Mitt Romney hadn't attended a single debate, he would probably be polling better than he does. Bachmann and Santorum have done nothing in their lives except say jaw-dropping crazy shit since they graduated from high school. And let's not even get started on Gingrich.

Anyway, I put Obama winning the coming election 57% to 43% of the total vote... 14 points... against Romney. 60% to 40% against any other candidate.

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