President Obama will be getting to make his first Supreme Court nomination this summer... an-on-average-twice-in-a-lifetime opportunity for a United States President. (Bush Junior appointed 2 justices, Clinton 2, Bush Senior 2, Reagan 3, Carter 0, Ford 1, Nixon 4, Johnson 2, and Kennedy 2. Given that Justice Stevens is 89 years old, it's very possible that President Obama will get his 2 appointments in short order... and if he serves a second term, maybe even 3.)Obviously Obama will be appointing liberal-minded Justices.
Surprisingly, today's Supreme Court is the most conservative it has ever been: By a study of judicial decisions, 4 of the 5 most conservative Justices to ever sit on the Supreme Court (and 5 out of the top 10) are on the court today.
Retiring Justice Souter has tended to be more liberal. This probably means that he withheld his retirement during President Bush's administration in order to avoid having a conservative Justice take his place. The 89-year-old Justice Stevens is also considered to be on the "liberal side" of the court, which means that he likely will chose to retire under Obama's presidency as well.
The five "conservative" Justices of the Supreme Court (Thomas age 60, Scalia age 73, Roberts age 54, Alito age 59, and Kennedy age 72) are all young enough that they will probably serve through Obama's first term — and likely even a second term should he receive it — in order to ensure that their seats do not go to a liberal Justice appointed by Obama.
The 2 remaining "liberal" Justices (Ginsburg age 76, Breyer age 70) may or may not retire during Obama's tenure. If they do not, obviously their retirement — as well as the potential retirements of Justices Scalia and Kennedy, who will be age 81 and 80, respectively, 8 years from now — will be the most likely upcoming chance to shift the balance of the Supreme Court... an opportunity that would be granted to the President who is elected after Obama.
In other words, the one thing that that will not change during the Obama presidency — barring an unexpected retirement of one of the 5 conservative justices — is the conservative/liberal makeup of the Supreme Court.
If Ginsburg and Breyer do not retire during Obama's 4-year or 8-year term, the next president may likely replace them, and Justices Scalia and Kennedy as well. So if the next President after Obama is a Democrat, there may be 3 conservative justices and 6 liberal justices at the end of his or her term. If the next President is a Republican, there may be 7 conservative justices and 2 liberal justices at the end of his or her term.
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