I'd say this chart reflects reality and most people's understanding and expectations of global warming. I don't think global warming would effect me in any significant way because I don't believe that major effects of global warming will be seen in the next 30 years. (Minor effects, yes... if you can consider things like the loss of the tiny island nation of Tuvalu "minor".) Maybe by the time I'm 80 or 90, Miami will be a huge coastal swamp like they have in Lousiana, with half of the city's electrical supply used to power a massive pumping system. Maybe New York city will have huge dikes around the 5 boroughs to handle high tide. Obviously places like Bangladesh will be gone, but most villages there can be moved in an hour.I don't know how many species will be gone from global warming. I understand that only a 2 degree rise in the average temperature of the ocean off the coast of Australia would kill the Great Barrier Reef (Stan? What light can you shed on that? [UPDATE: Stan responded via e-mail which I have posted in comments]), but I personally doubt that many species would be wiped out directly by global warming because most can just migrate and adjust against slowly creeping inclement conditions. (If the Great Barrier Reef dies in location A because of water temperature or change in sea level, it will begin to grow again in location B. The remnants of old reefs shows that it's happened several times before.) Most species face their principal threat from a complete loss of habitat, which comes primarily from the actions of man in the form of deforestation, over-development, and pollution.
I'm not an "eco warrior" by any measure: I ride an electric motorcycle because I think it looks cool, is totally quiet, and gets noticed. It's convenient, doesn't need to have the oil changed, or require stops at the gas station. I use energy saving lightbulbs because they save me about 2,000 pisos per month over a similar number of regular 75-watt incandescent bulbs. I want jeepneys to stop spewing out huge amounts of black smoke because it gags me and a lung full of burnt oil is probably as carcinigenic as cigarette smoke, not because I want to save Bangladesh. I want there to be less pollution and trash, and more parks and trees in places like Cagayan De Oro because I think that will make it a nicer place for me to live. These are all selfish reasons that have nothing to do with earth on a grand scale. (Well, I would like the internal combustion engine to become obsolete so that I can watch all the crazy people in Saudi Arabia eat sand, and make places like Iraq and Iran as unimportant to American political and military interests as Burkina Faso... so I suppose there is a bit of global-mindedness.)
Like I said before: I enjoy chaos if it doesn't affect me personally (and, I should add... doesn't result in massive pain, death, or human rights abuses). I think that watching London fall below sea level over a period of a decade would be cool. (If you live there, sorry: I'll pay for your Wellies.) I think that watching the evening news and seeing million-dollar beach houses get knocked over by waves during a particularly high tide would be cool. Hell: I'll be 70 or 80 when that happens; I'll need some excitement in my dotage.
What I really want is good quality air, quiet streets, a pleasant and clean town, and no electricity or gasoline expenses. What I really want is technology to hurry up and give those things to me. If it "saves the planet" (which means "saves us" by the way... the planet can get along fine without Boston, and within 20,000 years — the blink of an eye in geologic time* — a new planetary equilibrium will be found) well that's just an added bonus.
* If the planet were a 40-year-old person, a 20,000-year span would represent 4 hours of adjustment.
2 comments:
Dear Jil,
As you know from my blog I have never had any time for Greenflece or global warming, as for the barrier reef, nature given time will make up any losses in one way or another, but temperature increase is given far to much credence as a factor in some of the barrier reef dying, ask any aquarist what temperature range their coral aquarium goes through in their homes, the swing in day/night, summer/winter temperature is staggering, but the coral survives.
Another thing everybody has been brain washed into thinking is that coral grows at a fraction of an inch a year, sure it does when it is full sized, as a 200 foot redwood does, but when it is small coral grows so fast it is almost untrue, that is why aquarist sell or swap coral "frags" to other aquarist (just look in any fish keeping mags) as it grows so fast when a larger coral dies of old age to take advantage of the now available light, in the same way when a tree in the forest falls new trees grow so fast, but as I said before when mature, growth is so slow, it cannot grow bigger than the size nature intended or else we would have 6 foot mice or 2 foot fleas, I hope you see what I mean, sorry to go on, but a huge and totally misunderstood subject,
oh and by the way without the Thames barrier in London we would have been wearing wellies years ago!
best regards, Stan and Diana.
Like I said in my blog post: I support "green technology" because of the benefits I perceive it will bestow upon my life and my immediate environment... not because it will keep Bangkok from becoming the world's largest coral reef.
However, when it comes to man's direct impact on the enviroment, I am indeed a conservationist: Hunting species onto the endangered list, chopping down vast tracts of nearby forest without reseeding efforts causing massive erosion, polluting the air, the ground, rivers and lakes and oceans... all of it degrades the world around us... and each such action is strictly unnecessary in my opinion. "Saving" the enviroment versus maintaining it and keeping it clean are two different things.
Greenpeace's efforts to make people aware of the tenuous condition of various species brought about by humanity's over-harvesting of their population is a good thing. (Their methods and its effect on public reception their message is another story entirely.) I give tacit support to any effort that tries to keep animals from extinction... while making sure to strongly differentiate that effort from those efforts that merely try to stop progress for the sake of keeping things "the way they are."
As for global warming, I personally believe that it is caused by man. I personally believe the scientific data that concludes this is true. I also personally don't care if sea levels go up 20 feet. I personally believe that they will... and is perhaps something I will see before I die. I am also quite sure it will be humanity's fault. Besides: We'll have years to get out of the way of the rising water and adjust our way of living (and the location of our beach resorts many miles inland). Maybe it won't be as chaotic as I hope... but it still will be fun to watch.
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