The Republican Problem of Presidential Candidates

Look at this graph from Nate Silver:
This is an illustration of the problem that the Republican party faces in the next presidential election: When you ask America, "Obama... or anybody else?" more people pick "anybody else" (i.e. "generic") than Obama. However, when you ask people about specific candidates that the Republicans have to offer, none of them win the preference.

Nate sums it up:

[I]t is a problem for Republicans that no actual Republican can approach the performance of the generic candidate, probably because the generic candidate is Rorschach blot that allows each respondent to create what amounts to their fantasy candidate.

That's absolutely accurate... and I honestly don't think that the currents are going to shift towards the Republicans on this either: The negative feelings generated for Obama by the healthcare debate are wearing off and won't hold the public's interest much longer. Also, Obama is ginning up the rebound now, pulling little bits of candy out of his bag to toss to people (the START negotiations, Atlantic coastal oil drilling), and more are obviously going to come.

Whether you think it is a good or a bad thing, it can't be denied that Obama is the most tactical and conniving politician ever to sit in the White House... possibly of all politicians in American history. (No, not Clinton... if he was any good, he would never have had a scandal.) I could say that the man doesn't sneeze without first figuring out the political ramifications... but it would be more accurate to say that now, in the beginning of April, Obama is currently planning when and where to sneeze for June and July... and the actual, important shit is certainly already planned out in full for 2012.

Anyway, none of the Republicans on the list above are going to poll any higher than they currently do. (I can't believe that Ron Paul polls lower than Sarah Palin though... sheesh.)

The worst news for Republicans is not that this is what the poll for the 2012 Presidential election looks like. It is that when you look at the Hillary Clinton version of this chart for 2016 and 2020, all the candidates on the right side stay the same... and the chart looks pretty much the same as well.