Not too much was going on today. Charity stopped by with Nathan the Rent-A-Baby. At 10 months of age, Nathan is already over 30 pounds, and not only walks fantastically, but even does a little dance if you wiggle your hips for him and say "Dance Nathan!" He's probably the cutest and happiest baby I've ever seen.
Tyson hasn't tried to fly anymore... but I'm nervous now whenever he gets near the edge of the rooftop garden or any of the windows. He's probably confused as to why I'm always telling him "get down" when I didn't before. I should probably just trust his instinct not to do a header from 40 feet up... and if my trust is misplaced... well that just means that Tyson was too dumb to live anyway.
I spent the evening doing a massive spreadsheet for the chicken farm. I've redone the calculations in minute detail, and increased the negative factors (mortality rates, failures, et cetera) to double what I was told to expect. It increased the cost of a chicken from 60 pisos to 75 pisos, and decreased the profit from 54 pisos to 33 pisos. But, that's what I was shooting for: Conservative and pessimistic estimates that (likely as not) are more realistic than hopeful and optimistic ones. (Most importantly, the spreadsheet has shown me exactly how much cash I need to operate the farm for 50 days with no income. It's twice what I had thought. Ouch.)
Tomorrow night, I'll add in expansion plans and growth projections... which are the real numbers to be focusing on. Any increase in costs and decrease in profits can be offset by simply selling more chickens. The salient question is how much longer than originally thought will it take to reach maximum capacity on the first farm? My first thought was 8-9 months. Well, we'll see.
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2 comments:
It will take 1 year before you recover your investment. That comment came from a Pinoy who has been farming chickens for the past 40 years.
Actually that's pretty accurate: Day 323 of operations, according to my spreadsheet... so 10½ months. (But by then, I will have taken the money earned and reinvested it, and tripled the size of the farm from its' original size... so it depends on what your definition of "recovering your investment" is.)
What makes my farm different is that (a) while the initial cost is higher, so is the profit margin, (b) the cost and ease of expansion is tiny compared to other farms, and (c) the farm will be delivering chickens every single day -- 365 flocks per year -- instead of every 40-50 days.
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